Statistical Analysis of 2020 General Election Results - Georgia
I will be
looking into the results of the 2020 Election as it pertains to the state of
Georgia. What I am particularly looking
at is the changes of statistical significance in the various counties in Georgia
for the 2020 General Election. As anyone
who is familiar with statistics knows, anything more than a 5% change (be it an
increase or decrease) is considered a statistically significant change. It is significant in that it is something
very unlikely to occur. If you see anything
more than a 10% change (be it an increase or decrease) is considered such a statistically
significant change, it is considered almost implausible.
It has
been well-documented this election had a significantly increased voter
turnout. This is evidenced in Georgia by
fact that the state as a whole had a 22% increase in votes cast as compared to
2016, on average Georgia counties had a 19% increase in votes cast and no
county in Georgia had the same or fewer votes cast as in 2016. So, I am going to compare the percentage of increase
in total votes cast to the percentage of increase in votes cast for each major
party’s candidate. Take a look at my
example below. We are comparing the
votes cast in 2020 against the votes cast in 2016 in the county of Clay in
Georgia. As you can see, there was a 13%
increase in total votes cast when comparing the two General Elections. You can also see there is a 13% increase in votes
cast for the Republican candidate when comparing the two General Elections. You can additionally see there is a 13%
increase in votes cast for the Democrat candidate when comparing the two
General Elections.
|
2020
Election Results |
|
2016
Election Results |
Total
Vote Increase |
GOP
Vote Increase |
Dem
Vote Increase |
||||||
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|||
|
Clay |
637 |
790 |
1,434 |
566 |
697 |
1,271 |
13% |
13% |
13% |
||
This will
be our control group because it shows a fairly uniform increase across the
board. This also shows neither candidate
made any increases in gaining new voters in this county.
Now let’s
look at some of the other counties in Georgia where the changes in vote totals
were not so uniform. The first will be
Paulding County. As you can see,
Paulding county had an impressive 33% increase in votes cast compared to
2016. The GOP candidate did not fare
well compared to overall vote cast increase.
What is particularly interesting is the Democrat candidate. The Democrat candidate not only kept pace
with the 33% increase in total votes cast, but they had an additional 32% vote
increase on top of that. Admittedly, the
GOP candidate received the most votes, but the vote total the Democrat
candidate received exceeded that of any Democrat Candidate since prior to 1992.
|
2020 Election Results |
|
2016 Election Results |
Total Vote Increase |
GOP Vote Increase |
Dem Vote Increase |
||||||
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|||
|
Paulding |
54,525 |
29,704 |
85,385 |
Paulding |
44,662 |
18,025 |
64,641 |
33% |
22% |
65% |
|
Next, we
move on to Jackson County. As you can
see, Jackson county had an even more impressive 39% increase in votes cast compared
to 2016. The GOP candidate performed
slightly under the overall vote cast increase with a 35% vote increase. What, again, is particularly interesting is
the Democrat candidate. The Democrat
candidate not only kept pace with the 39% increase in total votes cast, but
they had an additional 35% vote increase on top of that. Again, the GOP candidate received the most
votes, but the vote total the Democrat candidate received exceeded that of any
Democrat Candidate since prior to 1992.
In fact, the Democrat candidate almost doubled the number of votes any
Democrat candidate has gotten since 1992.
|
2020 Election Results |
|
2016 Election Results |
Total Vote Increase |
GOP Vote Increase |
Dem Vote Increase |
||||||
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|||
|
Jackson |
29,497 |
7,642 |
37,670 |
Jackson |
21,784 |
4,491 |
27,109 |
39% |
35% |
70% |
|
Our next
stop is Dawson County. As you can see,
the increase in votes cast compared to 2016 for Dawson County is as equally impressive
as out last example with 37%. The GOP
candidate performed slightly under the overall vote cast increase with a 35%
vote increase. Yet again, the particularly
interesting note is the Democrat candidate.
The Democrat candidate not only kept pace with the 37% increase in total
votes cast, but they had an additional 35% vote increase on top of that. Again, the GOP candidate received the most
votes, but the vote total the Democrat candidate received exceeded that of any
Democrat Candidate since prior to 1992.
In fact, the Democrat candidate almost doubled the number of votes any
Democrat candidate has gotten in Dawson County since 1992.
|
2020 Election Results |
|
2016 Election Results |
Total Vote Increase |
GOP Vote Increase |
Dem Vote Increase |
||||||
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|||
|
Dawson |
13,398 |
2,486 |
16,081 |
Dawson |
9,900 |
1,448 |
11,704 |
37% |
35% |
72% |
|
Next, will
be in Forsyth County, Georgia. You can see, the increase in votes cast compared
to 2016 for Forsyth County is as equally impressive as out first example with 33%. The GOP candidate significantly under-performed
compared to the overall vote cast increase with a 22% vote increase (a
statistically implausible 11% decrease).
Yet again, the astounding part is the Democrat candidate. The Democrat candidate not only kept pace
with the 33% increase in total votes cast, but they had an unbelievable additional
47% vote increase on top of that. The 2020
Democrat Candidate out-performed the 2016 Democrat Candidate by getting 80%
more votes in comparison. This is again
more votes than any Democrat Candidate since prior to 1992. It is again almost doubled the number of
votes any Democrat candidate has gotten in Dawson County since 1992. In some cases it is triple that of any
Democratic candidate in that time.
|
2020 Election Results |
|
2016 Election Results |
Total Vote Increase |
GOP Vote Increase |
Dem Vote Increase |
||||||
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|||
|
Forsyth |
85,122 |
42,203 |
129,305 |
Forsyth |
69,851 |
23,462 |
97,404 |
33% |
22% |
80% |
|
There are
countless examples just like this throughout the state of Georgia, but our last
stop (and arguably the most perplexing) will be in Henry County, Georgia. Below
illustrates the increase in votes cast compared to 2016 for Henry County is none
the less impressive at 25%. The GOP
candidate astoundingly under-performed compared to the overall vote cast
increase with a 5% vote increase (a statistically mind boggling 20% decrease). Yet again, the astounding part is the Democrat
candidate. The Democrat candidate not
only kept pace with the 25% increase in total votes cast, but they had an impressive
additional 21% vote increase on top of that.
This is a phenomenal 41% swing in support from one party to the other. Additionally, not only is this more votes
than any Democrat Candidate has gotten in Henry County since prior to 1992. It is only the second time since 1992 Henry
County has been won by a Democrat (the first being 2016).
|
2020 Election Results |
|
2016 Election Results |
Total Vote Increase |
GOP Vote Increase |
Dem Vote Increase |
||||||
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|
Co. |
GOP |
Dem |
Total |
|||
|
Henry |
48,187 |
73,276 |
122,742 |
Henry |
45,724 |
50,057 |
98,286 |
25% |
5% |
46% |
|
In
conclusion, here are some other statistics that I find particularly interesting. In the state of Georgia, 79 of the 160
counties had a voter turnout equal to or exceeding the 19% average county
increase. Of these 79 counties, 59 of
them saw the Democrat candidate’s vote increase exceed the Republican candidate’s
vote increase. In twenty of counties the
comparative increase of Democrat to Republican is between 25% and 58%. This is truly an amazing accomplishment
considering the limited at best in-person campaigning the Democrat candidate
performed in the lead up to the 2020 General Election. Next, looking at the overall numbers, the
highest number of total votes any Democrat had gotten in Georgia during a
General Election, leading up to the 2020 Election, was 1.877 million votes in
2016 (followed closely by 1.844 million votes in 2008). According to the released results from
Georgia, the Democrat candidate was able to accumulate an amazing 2.459 million
votes. It is a well-documented mindset
that Democrat voters tend to vote “down ticket” (voting for all one party on a
given ballot) much more often than Republican voters. So, as a result, it would seem logical the
number of votes cast for a Democrat Presidential candidate should be reasonably
comparable as a Democrat Senatorial candidate on the same ballot. That is not the case when it comes to Georgia
in the 2020 General Election. In this
Election, the Republican Senatorial candidate actually received more votes than
the Republican Presidential candidate (a difference of 759 votes). Conversely, the Democratic Senatorial
candidate received vastly fewer votes than the Democratic Presidential
candidate. The Democratic Presidential
candidate received 99,944 more votes than the Democratic Senatorial candidate. This seems to imply, almost 100,000 Democrat
voters walked into the voting booth, chose their candidate for President and
walked right back out. The laws of
statistics say these kinds of outcomes are somewhere between implausible and
impossible.
Outstanding work patriot! Well done, solid.
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